Prison Release Scheme

More than 650 prisoners in England and Wales are due to be released on Tuesday under the third tranche of the government's early release scheme.

The prison population in England and Wales on 9 November was 86,982, which was 97. 6% of useable capacity, external.

In the long-term, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has projected that the capacity of all prisons will rise to around 99,000 by 2032 as a result of more prisons being built by this government.

But it also projected that the prisoner population would rise to about 104,000 by 2032 if the Sentencing Act 2026 - which provides for earlier release - did not come into force.

The first tranche saw about 700 offenders released from jail early on 1 October - all of whom were serving terms of less than 19 months.

Under the scheme, eligible prisoners are released after serving a third of their total custodial sentence rather than after 40% or 50% of the term.

The prison population has risen significantly in recent decades with a significant uptick starting in the 1990s before reaching a record high in 2024.

Analysts argue that without a major change in thinking about the appropriateness of prison as punishment, or a significant long-term increase in prison building, the system in England and Wales will remain close to capacity.