Faisal Islam: Triple lock move is significant but a gamble

The government calls it an 'adjusted triple lock' as it is keen that pensioners are reassured. It is more like a double lock plus.

Under Burnham's plans, the state pension will go up by either the pace of price rises or 2. 5%, whichever is higher. So, it will still keep up with inflation and go up every year.

The policy would be to maintain the state pension as a share of earnings at the record level it is due to reach in 2030.

This change is sharper than expected. Not a review or a consultation. Ministers and MPs will have to back the plans in interviews and, at some point, MPs will have to vote on changing the historic annual earnings link to the state pension.

It seems far more significant than a mere 'adjustment'. This will save many billions in the coming decades, but not so much in the next few years.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies thinktank says that, had Burnham's tweak been in place since 2011, it would have more than halved the annual £16bn cost of the triple lock, a £9bn saving every year. Government sources said the decision to make the change now will save around £15bn a year by 2040.

The prime minister was repeatedly advised that bond markets would show some appreciation for a UK government capable of taking tough decisions. Former chancellor Rachel Reeves might have imagined the same reward for her decision to scrap the winter fuel allowance, which was one of her first acts and later reversed.