Indus Water Treaty suspension by India amounts to water warfare

The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), signed in 1960, stands as one of the most successful water-sharing agreements in the world. Brokered by the World Bank, it was a landmark settlement between India and Pakistan to fairly share the waters of the Indus River system, ensuring that tensions over water did not escalate into full-blown conflict.

Background of the Treaty

The Indus River system consists of six main rivers: the Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej. According to the terms of the treaty:

Pakistan received exclusive rights over the three western rivers — Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.

India retained rights over the three eastern rivers — Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej — with limited rights to use the western rivers for non-consumptive purposes like irrigation, transport, and hydroelectric power.

The treaty not only allocated the rivers but also laid down protocols for constructing projects, ensuring that India’s use of the western rivers would not reduce the flow to Pakistan in a way that would harm its interests.

For over six decades, despite wars and tensions, the IWT endured, often cited as a rare instance of cooperation between the two countries.

Recent Developments: Suspension Threats

Tensions between India and Pakistan, particularly following events like the Uri attack (2016) and the Pulwama attack (2019), led to calls within India to reconsider the treaty. Indian leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, suggested that "blood and water cannot flow together," hinting at potential actions to limit water flow to Pakistan.

Some specific steps and proposals included:

Maximizing utilization of India's share of eastern rivers by building projects such as Shahpur Kandi dam, Ujh Multipurpose Project, and Ravi-Beas rebalancing projects.

Stopping unused water of the eastern rivers from flowing into Pakistan by diverting it for use in Indian territories, particularly in Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir.

Reviewing and reconsidering the entire treaty framework, including suspending or amending aspects in India's favor.

However, it's important to note that India has not yet unilaterally suspended or revoked the treaty. The legal and diplomatic consequences of doing so would be severe, potentially inviting international scrutiny and backlash.

Instead, India's focus has been on fully utilizing its rights under the treaty — rights it had not historically exercised to the fullest. This includes increased dam construction and water management projects to prevent any "waste" of its share into Pakistan.

Can India Legally Suspend the Treaty?

While India theoretically has the option to withdraw from the treaty by invoking the "Doctrine of Changed Circumstances" under international law, such a move would be extremely controversial. The Indus Waters Treaty does not have a formal exit clause, and unilateral abrogation could be viewed as a violation of international law.

Moreover, revoking the treaty could escalate tensions into direct conflict, considering Pakistan’s heavy dependence on Indus waters for agriculture and drinking needs.

Conclusion

The Indus Waters Treaty remains a symbol of cautious cooperation amid an otherwise hostile relationship. While India has hinted at restricting water flows and maximizing its usage rights, a complete suspension remains unlikely in the immediate future.

However, the increasing politicization of water as a weapon in bilateral relations marks a worrying trend. The Indus River system is not only crucial for national security but also for millions who depend on its life-giving waters. Moving forward, both countries must recognize that cooperation — rather than conflict — over shared resources is essential for regional stability and human welfare.